No deal Brexit to cost Yorkshire and the Humber £12bn a year by 2034, according to CBI

22 January 2019

No deal Brexit to cost Yorkshire and the Humber £12bn a year by 2034, according to CBI

The long-term economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on the Yorkshire and the Humber has been estimated at an annual loss of output worth £12bn by 2034, according to new analysis of government figures by the CBI.

CBI noted that this figure is equivalent to the annual public spending on health, including all hospitals, GP surgeries and emergency health services, in Yorkshire and the Humber.

The manufacturing sector in Yorkshire and the Humber is particularly exposed to the risk of higher tariffs and trade costs, with the chemicals and agri-food sector, which employ thousands, likely to be severely impacted.

With 58% of Yorkshire and the Humber’s goods exports going to the EU, any increased trade friction, added costs or delays would also hit the region particularly hard.

John Sutcliffe, CEO of Henry Boot PLC, said: “Even as a construction company which is completely UK-focused, Henry Boot would have two overriding concerns about a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

“The first regards our supply chain and skilled labour; we rely on both from the EU so any delays at borders or tariffs which stem from a ‘no deal’ will increase costs. The second is economic uncertainty: a ‘no deal’ Brexit and likely economic downturn could mean our customers hold off on investment decisions.

“Both of these concerns could hamper our ability to grow as a business and our ability to create more jobs in Yorkshire.”

Beckie Hart, regional director for CBI Yorkshire and Humber, added: “CBI members across the region are clear: if the new approach to finding a Brexit deal continues to be a game of who blinks first, the Yorkshire and Humber economies will pay the price.

“The deadlock will only be broken by a genuine attempt by all MPs to find consensus and compromise, not stick to rusting red lines and political conditions. Like the rest of the UK, Yorkshire and Humber are not – and cannot be – ready for no deal.

“The projected impact on our region’s economy would be devastating and while business will do all it can to reduce some of the worst aspects, a no deal scenario is unmanageable.

“The message from the CBI to our politicians is clear – we must see compromise or the whole country faces the unforgivable prospect of a disorderly Brexit which will affect jobs and livelihoods in Yorkshire and the Humber for decades to come. It’s time to put our region’s prosperity before party politics and dogma.”